Why I am voting No this week

It has been ages since I wrote anything in this blog. I was actually hoping that the next article could capture some of the amazing experiences I have had in my new family sitiuation over the last year. Instead I am writing about the blooming referendum that the Irish people have to vote on this Thursday. Groan.

That said, I feel absolutely compelled to write this note because I don't know of anybody else doing the same (correct me if I am wrong so I can spread the word;)). It actually takes awhile to get all the figures together (something very few people seem to have these days) but once you write everything down you realise that voting 'No' is the only option the Irish people have this Thursday. The argument goes like this:

Ireland is bankrupt. Right now we are borrowing from the 'Troika' to pay off a 19billion euros deficit  (13% of GDP).

As we do this we increase our national debt. By end of 2013 our Debt/GDP ratio will be >120%.

The treaty we are about to vote on requires that a country keeps its deficit to 3% of GDP. By end of of 2013 we 'hope' that our deficit will be close to 9%.

Nothing in this treaty would have prevented the collapse (for many of the boom years Ireland ran a budgetary surplus).

The above figures (that assume we can get the deficit down to 9% by end of 2013) assume a staggering growth in our economy of 3.3% in 2013. It is far more likely that we will be in recession by then.

Carrying on like this will mean that AT LEAST 25% of all tax revenues from 2013 onwards will be used to service our national debt.

If it’s true that we cannot get ESM funding if we vote no to the treaty then Ireland will have to default – we will have to default at some point – remember we are bankrupt.

Given that Greece is in a worse situation than Ireland, is it conceivable that the EU will not allow us access funds just because we exercised our democratic right to vote no? 

If this is the case then we should not be in the EU in the first place.

The plan seems to be that 'over time' the economy will grow and thus we will outgrow our debt. There is zero evidence globally that large scale growth is on the horizon. Couple that with rising energy costs and you see the folly in this approach.

So could somebody tell me why would you vote yes to a treaty that limits your ability to manage your own sovereign finances and writes these limitations INTO LAW (so that we can be penalised if we fail to reach the targets and clearly that’s what’s going to happen)? This means austerity ad infinitum. It is akin to whipping the flock before they go over the cliff.

Ireland has only one option right now and that is to have its debt renegotiated. This treaty is the one chance the country gets to get that on the table. If you vote yes you lose that chance and the country goes over the cliff - that’s a certainty – just look at the figures. If you vote no you get a chance to negotiate – that’s an uncertainty but far better than the certainty this present government is inflicting on its people.